***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 32.1 32.9 32.0 2.9 84.2 82.0 28.6 29.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 31.3 31.9 31.9 2.6 80.5 78.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.5 31.5 2.2 76.3 74.2 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.3 24.8 28.1 1.7 73.5 71.9 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 30.6 31.6 28.7 1.2 65.5 64.4 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 30.0 30.1 26.1 1.1 66.8 65.9 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 31.1 31.9 32.1 2.9 83.6 81.3 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 18.1 18.5 25.9 0.6 59.2 58.6 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 29.7 30.6 29.3 1.1 64.6 63.5 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 29.5 29.9 26.9 0.6 58.9 58.2 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 30.1 31.0 28.9 1.1 65.1 64.0 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 29.4 30.2 27.4 1.0 64.5 63.6 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 31.5 31.5 28.3 1.2 66.1 65.3 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 29.5 30.2 28.7 1.0 63.4 62.2 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 32.3 32.7 30.9 2.1 79.8 78.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 48 52 100 32.1 32.2 28.4 1.1 65.9 65.0 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 30.7 31.7 31.7 3.0 84.4 81.6 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 28.5 28.7 25.8 0.5 56.7 56.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 30.8 31.3 31.5 2.2 77.0 74.6 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 24.6 24.6 23.5 0.2 53.8 53.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 48 52 100 30.8 31.0 30.4 1.4 68.2 66.8 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 31.2 31.7 31.0 2.3 78.3 75.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.2 31.2 2.1 76.3 73.7 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 29.1 29.9 28.6 1.0 63.4 62.1 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 31.5 31.7 29.8 1.8 73.7 72.1 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 31.2 31.4 27.2 1.3 68.9 67.9 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 31.3 31.8 30.7 2.4 79.6 77.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 31.8 32.0 29.0 1.5 72.0 70.8 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 24.0 24.1 25.0 0.4 55.4 54.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 31.2 32.0 32.0 2.6 81.0 78.6 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------