***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.9 29.5 1.0 62.8 59.0 27.7 29.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.3 29.5 0.9 61.4 57.6 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.1 29.1 29.2 0.5 56.0 54.1 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.7 26.7 0.4 55.4 54.4 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.2 26.7 -0.4 45.2 46.6 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.9 24.4 -0.3 45.8 46.9 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.1 29.6 1.0 63.7 59.5 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.8 24.4 -0.6 41.4 43.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.4 27.1 -0.4 44.2 45.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.2 25.2 -0.6 41.9 43.7 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.9 26.7 -0.3 45.3 46.5 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.1 25.9 -0.4 44.6 45.9 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.1 26.0 -0.5 42.7 44.4 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.0 26.4 -0.5 43.7 44.9 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.5 28.8 0.8 61.5 59.4 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.7 30.0 26.5 -0.2 46.6 47.6 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.4 28.9 29.3 1.1 64.8 59.9 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.1 27.0 24.3 -0.7 40.9 42.8 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.7 28.8 29.3 0.6 58.6 55.8 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.8 22.0 -0.9 37.3 39.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.7 28.1 -0.2 47.4 48.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 26.8 29.1 29.0 0.9 61.6 57.9 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.7 29.0 0.5 56.2 54.1 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.8 26.5 -0.4 44.8 45.8 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.2 27.5 0.2 52.9 52.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.0 25.7 -0.2 47.1 47.7 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.2 28.4 0.7 59.0 56.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.2 27.4 0.4 55.6 54.7 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.4 23.4 -0.8 39.0 41.2 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.2 29.6 0.8 61.3 57.6 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------