***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 28.0 26.8 28.6 0.6 58.1 56.1 24.6 26.1 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.9 28.8 0.8 59.6 57.0 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 24.3 26.5 28.7 0.4 55.4 54.4 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 17.5 19.7 26.5 0.4 55.3 54.2 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 24.9 26.6 26.2 -0.2 46.9 48.5 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.8 23.9 0.0 49.7 50.7 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.7 28.8 0.9 60.8 57.9 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.5 15.0 24.4 -0.3 46.7 48.5 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 24.3 25.8 26.3 -0.3 45.6 47.6 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 24.4 25.9 25.0 -0.3 46.0 48.0 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.7 26.5 26.0 -0.1 48.9 50.0 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 24.2 25.9 25.7 -0.1 48.2 49.6 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.2 26.5 24.9 -0.4 44.6 47.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 24.2 25.6 25.8 -0.3 45.9 47.6 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 28.4 27.9 27.6 0.8 61.7 58.3 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.7 27.5 25.8 0.0 49.6 50.5 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.3 28.6 0.9 61.3 58.3 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.8 24.4 -0.3 45.7 47.8 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.6 28.8 0.7 58.1 56.0 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.8 21.8 -0.6 42.7 45.5 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 24.4 26.1 27.4 -0.2 48.1 49.4 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.7 28.4 0.8 60.2 57.3 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 24.3 26.4 28.4 0.4 55.3 54.1 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 23.9 25.5 26.0 -0.2 47.6 49.1 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 24.6 26.5 26.5 0.1 51.4 51.5 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 25.1 27.0 25.8 0.3 53.4 53.3 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 24.2 26.5 27.5 0.5 56.0 54.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 25.5 27.5 26.8 0.5 57.1 55.4 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.2 23.3 -0.5 43.8 46.3 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 24.3 26.7 28.9 0.8 59.3 56.8 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------