***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.8 26.8 0.3 53.5 53.3 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.8 26.8 0.1 51.8 51.3 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.6 26.9 0.0 50.5 51.1 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.7 24.9 0.3 54.3 54.1 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.7 24.8 24.7 -0.3 46.6 48.6 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.0 22.6 0.0 49.9 51.1 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.7 26.9 0.3 53.9 52.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.3 23.1 -0.2 48.1 49.8 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.2 24.8 -0.4 44.7 47.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.0 23.6 -0.3 46.1 48.2 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.7 24.6 -0.1 48.6 50.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.1 24.4 0.0 49.7 51.2 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.7 24.9 23.6 -0.3 46.8 49.0 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.0 23.9 24.2 -0.5 44.2 46.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.9 25.9 0.7 59.2 57.4 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.6 24.5 0.0 50.2 51.6 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.2 26.5 0.2 52.7 51.5 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.2 23.0 -0.3 46.5 48.2 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.5 26.8 0.1 51.0 50.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.4 20.7 -0.3 46.7 48.5 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.4 25.7 -0.3 46.2 48.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.6 24.7 26.4 0.2 52.4 51.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.4 26.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.8 24.5 -0.3 46.0 47.7 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.6 24.9 0.0 49.7 50.5 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 24.5 0.4 55.4 55.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.7 25.8 0.2 52.6 52.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.6 25.2 0.5 56.0 55.4 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 18.6 22.0 -0.3 45.8 47.7 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.7 26.9 0.2 52.7 52.2 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------