***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 28.4 28.6 29.2 1.2 72.7 67.4 26.5 27.4 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 28.0 28.2 29.3 1.1 70.6 65.7 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.9 29.1 0.8 64.9 61.3 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 21.4 21.1 26.5 0.7 64.3 61.4 19.6 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.0 26.6 0.1 51.4 51.4 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.9 24.2 0.2 54.4 53.8 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.0 29.3 1.3 73.7 68.7 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.9 24.4 -0.1 47.7 48.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.3 26.8 0.0 49.2 49.6 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.0 25.2 -0.1 46.8 47.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.8 26.6 0.2 53.1 52.5 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.0 25.9 0.1 52.4 51.9 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 25.7 0.0 49.7 49.9 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.9 26.3 -0.1 48.5 48.3 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.1 28.3 1.1 72.4 67.9 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.8 26.3 0.2 54.6 53.9 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.6 29.1 1.3 74.2 68.6 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 26.5 25.9 24.4 -0.2 45.4 46.4 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.8 29.1 0.9 67.2 62.8 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.8 22.0 -0.4 41.3 42.9 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.5 27.9 0.2 53.6 53.0 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.9 28.7 1.1 70.0 64.8 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.6 28.8 0.8 64.6 60.6 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.7 26.4 0.0 50.4 50.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.0 27.2 0.5 60.6 58.3 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.1 25.8 0.4 59.4 57.3 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 27.9 28.0 28.1 0.9 68.0 63.8 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 29.0 28.8 27.1 0.7 64.9 62.0 27.2 28.1 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.3 23.4 -0.3 42.8 44.2 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 27.9 28.1 29.3 1.1 71.0 65.9 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------