***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.1 7.7 92.0 62.4 44.5 2.2 5.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.1 7.1 89.0 61.5 48.0 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.7 12.3 8.1 104.0 66.4 48.3 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.6 5.7 71.3 55.0 38.5 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.8 6.3 85.5 60.1 42.4 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.3 5.7 71.2 54.3 38.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.7 6.2 76.4 56.9 43.9 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 14.6 10.8 112.6 68.3 53.9 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.3 7.1 96.7 64.1 47.4 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.0 11.0 111.8 68.0 53.3 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.4 6.9 95.7 63.8 44.6 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.0 6.8 98.1 64.3 47.7 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 1.4 4.1 4.6 71.2 54.0 37.1 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.3 10.5 103.4 65.8 53.7 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.1 4.3 70.5 56.2 33.9 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.4 4.9 74.3 55.6 38.3 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 6.6 75.8 56.5 44.9 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.7 9.3 12.3 112.7 68.0 56.5 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.3 7.9 95.3 63.6 49.7 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.0 12.3 13.0 111.5 67.5 55.9 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 10.1 6.9 100.4 64.7 47.4 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.8 7.1 80.8 58.4 46.9 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.2 8.8 99.5 65.1 50.7 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.9 9.8 110.7 67.9 53.1 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.4 6.5 73.0 55.4 39.5 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.4 4.6 4.6 89.2 60.3 41.8 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.2 7.3 80.2 58.5 41.9 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.0 5.0 69.0 54.7 37.5 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 13.2 12.9 115.3 68.7 57.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.2 7.4 93.5 63.2 47.8 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------