***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 10.7 13.2 129.3 72.9 48.5 2.4 4.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.3 9.4 100.1 64.9 48.1 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 15.2 13.8 143.3 76.0 51.3 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 15.5 11.8 133.4 74.0 50.8 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.2 9.9 12.0 142.1 75.7 52.6 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.9 12.6 13.5 135.3 74.1 54.4 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 12.9 9.6 101.8 65.1 49.0 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 25.4 14.2 151.5 77.7 59.9 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 16.4 13.7 148.2 77.1 54.0 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.9 14.1 15.2 148.4 77.1 57.6 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.5 11.3 11.7 131.0 72.6 52.2 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.9 10.0 11.3 143.0 75.8 55.6 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.6 10.4 129.8 73.1 52.4 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.6 22.8 17.5 143.0 76.0 55.0 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.7 8.9 10.7 126.1 72.6 46.5 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.3 9.7 10.3 124.2 71.8 51.1 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.3 13.5 9.9 102.7 65.7 46.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 21.7 17.7 150.4 77.5 60.4 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.6 10.4 109.5 67.4 48.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 15.6 21.0 18.1 153.0 77.8 64.2 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 15.5 14.1 145.1 76.5 51.7 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.3 16.2 10.8 104.6 65.8 45.2 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.3 14.4 12.7 128.7 72.5 51.9 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 15.0 16.0 144.0 76.2 56.1 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.3 10.9 14.2 127.5 72.6 50.8 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.7 12.1 11.7 147.0 76.9 56.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.4 14.6 13.9 122.7 71.3 49.0 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.3 11.0 10.7 130.1 73.5 48.7 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.4 22.2 18.8 145.6 76.4 61.5 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.5 9.0 10.6 112.4 68.3 49.0 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------