***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 16.4 9.4 107.7 68.7 43.5 4.4 8.7 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.9 18.1 9.8 118.3 71.0 43.8 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.6 20.0 9.4 109.0 68.5 43.6 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.1 20.5 10.0 116.9 71.2 42.7 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 4.3 22.0 9.7 119.2 71.5 41.3 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.7 15.8 11.2 119.1 71.1 43.4 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.1 12.9 10.4 123.5 72.1 44.7 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 8.2 27.8 10.3 113.1 69.3 41.5 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.5 21.5 10.1 116.3 70.5 41.6 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 6.4 24.2 11.2 114.3 69.9 42.3 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.8 18.9 8.8 120.2 71.3 39.0 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.9 16.7 8.4 118.7 70.9 39.4 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.2 19.5 9.1 123.6 72.4 39.6 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.7 24.8 13.6 114.7 69.8 44.5 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.8 10.5 10.0 129.5 73.9 42.8 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.9 18.6 8.5 119.9 71.4 38.9 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.6 15.0 10.3 117.9 70.8 44.3 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 17.8 12.7 109.1 68.5 45.6 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.4 9.5 113.9 69.8 43.1 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 19.5 11.7 97.9 64.9 43.1 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 17.1 9.5 109.5 69.0 42.0 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.4 16.1 9.6 103.1 66.7 43.6 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.3 18.5 9.6 110.7 69.0 42.5 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 6.5 24.6 11.5 107.2 67.7 44.7 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.0 19.6 11.1 115.6 70.7 44.7 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.1 14.5 7.2 117.7 71.0 40.1 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 18.4 11.1 117.4 71.0 45.0 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.8 13.4 9.8 122.6 72.4 41.5 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 26.6 12.9 105.6 67.3 45.6 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.3 15.2 9.7 114.9 70.2 43.8 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------