***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 12.0 11.5 116.0 70.3 49.8 2.7 5.8 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 11.6 12.8 132.7 74.1 50.8 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.0 12.5 11.6 118.7 70.7 50.6 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 17.7 10.7 103.2 67.1 47.5 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.6 12.1 10.7 109.9 68.5 47.5 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.8 12.1 94.6 64.1 45.3 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.3 14.8 12.2 126.0 72.6 50.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.6 23.8 11.1 95.7 63.4 46.8 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.2 11.1 108.5 68.0 48.2 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.8 12.4 102.7 65.7 47.9 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.6 10.2 103.5 66.7 46.5 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.9 14.6 9.1 94.1 63.7 45.4 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.1 9.2 86.4 61.2 43.3 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 15.8 15.4 115.4 70.1 51.1 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 8.8 9.2 94.4 65.3 44.5 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.7 12.2 9.6 93.6 64.0 45.2 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.1 15.6 14.0 146.6 76.9 53.7 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.0 14.5 108.1 67.0 50.1 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 17.6 12.7 128.8 73.3 51.1 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.5 13.2 92.2 61.5 48.2 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.2 13.1 11.2 117.6 70.5 48.9 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.5 18.9 14.7 139.4 75.6 53.7 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 13.3 12.5 121.6 71.6 51.8 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.7 14.8 13.9 117.1 70.1 51.4 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.0 12.0 111.8 69.2 49.8 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.4 8.0 88.1 62.2 41.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.4 11.8 110.5 69.0 49.3 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.8 9.8 95.6 65.1 45.0 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 23.5 14.7 105.4 66.0 50.5 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.1 14.0 11.9 120.9 71.4 50.1 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------