***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 42.4 49.8 41.9 112.3 66.0 56.5 24.5 36.1 50.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 42.7 48.9 39.1 110.8 65.3 56.8 26.0 36.7 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 63.3 62.9 43.0 119.8 69.0 59.0 29.2 42.7 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 55.1 61.0 38.2 106.9 64.1 53.1 38.0 49.6 62.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 39.5 48.2 38.8 114.9 67.2 55.4 22.8 33.7 46.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 21.8 46.7 42.4 105.7 62.5 52.1 22.2 34.9 50.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 43.0 47.7 38.4 107.7 63.9 56.2 24.7 36.2 49.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 78.3 92.9 46.3 116.9 67.8 57.7 50.3 68.8 90.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 47.4 57.8 42.0 118.4 68.5 56.8 29.7 41.6 55.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 55.0 65.0 49.7 118.9 68.8 57.6 37.8 49.6 62.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 41.8 47.5 37.6 112.6 66.1 54.5 26.7 36.5 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 42.2 47.8 35.5 112.6 66.1 55.6 26.1 36.2 47.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 44.8 33.3 102.6 61.9 51.1 23.3 35.1 48.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.9 76.9 57.1 119.8 69.1 57.3 42.8 57.1 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.2 36.0 34.2 106.9 65.1 53.1 14.8 24.5 36.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.3 45.6 33.3 103.3 62.3 51.3 23.5 35.1 49.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 25.9 46.9 40.9 111.4 65.4 55.7 26.0 35.9 47.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 51.2 63.2 57.2 119.8 69.3 58.8 31.3 44.4 59.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 46.2 54.0 40.5 112.6 66.0 57.3 28.4 40.2 54.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 62.1 69.6 56.1 112.2 65.1 56.5 42.2 55.5 70.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 46.2 58.7 41.7 119.8 69.1 57.7 26.2 39.4 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 49.9 55.9 42.1 108.4 63.9 54.4 32.3 44.1 57.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 46.8 55.6 43.6 115.8 67.3 57.8 29.7 41.1 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 59.6 71.0 51.2 120.4 69.4 58.4 38.6 52.0 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 43.1 50.2 43.8 108.5 64.5 54.6 23.7 36.4 52.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 34.8 40.4 31.5 111.4 65.7 54.7 21.6 30.4 40.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 48.5 56.2 44.1 108.7 64.5 55.2 27.6 41.2 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.1 39.3 35.3 105.2 63.9 52.3 21.5 30.4 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 74.5 88.4 59.4 117.8 68.3 58.8 50.3 66.6 85.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 42.3 49.3 39.7 111.2 65.5 57.4 25.2 36.6 49.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------