***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.3 18.8 0.9 66.4 64.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.9 18.1 0.4 57.7 57.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.2 18.7 18.8 0.7 63.2 62.3 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 14.1 14.7 16.3 0.6 61.9 61.1 12.9 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.7 17.0 0.9 67.9 66.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 13.2 13.4 13.7 0.5 59.7 59.0 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.4 18.6 0.7 63.1 62.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.3 9.8 14.0 0.7 65.3 64.1 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.2 17.2 1.1 72.8 70.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.8 15.7 15.1 0.8 66.9 65.5 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 16.5 0.9 69.0 67.5 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.4 15.3 0.8 67.5 66.2 12.1 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.2 14.8 0.5 60.5 59.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 15.9 16.1 16.3 0.5 59.5 58.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.3 17.5 18.6 1.4 76.7 74.9 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.3 15.8 0.7 65.6 64.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.4 17.8 0.4 57.6 57.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.9 14.2 0.5 61.6 60.8 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.9 18.3 0.5 59.5 58.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 9.6 9.7 12.2 0.4 59.0 58.5 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.6 18.1 0.9 68.4 66.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.0 15.0 17.9 0.2 54.4 54.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 48 52 100 15.6 15.6 18.6 0.9 66.0 64.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.9 16.5 0.7 63.7 62.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 15.9 15.9 17.9 0.9 66.1 64.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 14.4 14.7 14.0 0.5 61.6 60.8 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.7 16.7 18.3 1.0 67.3 65.4 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 14.5 14.6 16.9 0.9 67.7 66.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 13.5 13.7 13.3 0.4 58.5 57.9 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.4 18.6 0.6 61.5 60.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------