***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.0 17.7 1.4 77.8 69.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.6 17.4 1.1 74.3 67.2 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.2 18.0 1.4 79.2 69.9 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 12.1 12.8 15.4 1.5 80.6 71.9 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.4 13.9 15.2 1.3 78.4 69.6 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 12.4 12.9 13.4 1.2 79.6 70.6 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.9 17.6 1.3 76.2 68.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 7.9 8.4 13.1 1.2 78.4 69.2 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 14.4 14.9 15.4 1.4 79.8 70.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 14.3 14.6 13.8 1.2 77.3 68.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 14.0 14.4 14.6 1.2 77.8 68.9 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 12.4 12.8 13.8 1.2 78.7 69.7 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 13.4 13.5 13.0 1.0 72.2 66.0 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 14.8 14.9 15.1 1.0 72.4 66.0 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.3 16.7 1.6 83.4 74.2 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.4 14.1 1.2 77.3 69.1 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.8 17.0 1.1 72.9 66.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.1 12.9 1.1 76.3 67.8 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.7 17.4 1.2 75.4 67.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.2 10.8 0.9 73.8 66.7 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 14.1 14.6 16.9 1.4 79.7 70.1 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.8 13.9 16.9 1.0 72.2 65.7 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 14.0 14.4 17.4 1.4 78.3 69.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.8 15.1 1.3 77.8 68.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 14.5 15.0 16.5 1.5 79.5 71.1 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.6 13.0 1.1 74.1 67.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 14.8 15.3 17.0 1.4 77.7 70.1 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.4 14.1 15.7 1.5 81.5 72.5 11.2 12.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 11.8 12.1 12.3 1.0 74.6 67.0 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 14.7 15.0 17.7 1.3 75.9 68.3 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------