***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.7 17.9 1.1 78.7 73.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.5 17.4 0.7 71.5 67.3 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 16.7 16.9 18.0 1.0 77.2 71.6 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.7 15.6 1.1 81.0 75.5 11.1 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.1 13.5 15.8 1.1 81.3 74.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.1 12.4 13.5 1.0 81.0 75.5 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.8 17.7 0.9 75.7 70.7 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 7.8 8.0 13.3 0.9 79.3 72.9 6.8 7.2 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 14.3 14.7 15.9 1.1 83.7 76.6 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.3 14.2 0.9 79.0 72.3 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.1 15.2 1.0 81.2 74.7 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.3 14.3 1.0 81.1 75.1 11.0 11.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.2 13.7 0.8 75.2 70.5 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 15.4 0.7 71.0 66.9 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.2 17.3 1.5 88.9 83.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.0 14.7 1.0 80.5 75.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 17.1 0.7 71.1 66.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.8 13.2 0.7 75.6 69.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.5 17.5 0.8 72.9 68.4 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.7 11.2 0.6 72.3 67.0 7.7 8.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 13.9 14.2 17.1 1.1 80.7 74.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.8 17.0 0.6 67.9 64.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.0 17.6 1.0 77.9 72.4 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.6 15.4 0.9 77.2 71.2 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.5 16.8 1.1 80.5 74.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.5 13.4 0.8 78.1 72.5 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.0 17.3 1.1 79.8 74.3 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 13.0 13.5 16.0 1.2 84.0 78.8 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.0 12.5 0.6 72.6 67.1 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.9 17.8 0.9 74.4 69.6 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------