***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 31.3 31.1 30.0 1.1 64.0 62.5 28.7 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 30.0 30.6 30.1 1.1 63.0 61.8 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 30.0 30.7 30.2 1.2 64.0 62.6 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.6 25.0 28.3 2.0 74.8 72.6 21.3 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 32.0 32.0 29.0 1.5 68.7 66.9 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 29.1 30.1 26.0 1.2 66.1 64.7 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.6 30.2 29.9 1.0 62.5 61.3 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.4 19.3 26.6 1.4 67.5 65.7 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.5 30.1 2.0 73.6 71.2 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 30.8 30.8 27.7 1.5 68.1 66.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.4 31.5 29.3 1.6 69.1 67.2 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 30.7 30.8 28.0 1.6 70.2 68.1 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 31.7 31.8 28.5 1.4 67.9 66.3 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 30.7 30.5 29.0 1.4 66.0 64.4 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 32.1 32.6 30.8 2.2 77.8 75.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 32.5 32.7 28.8 1.7 70.4 68.6 29.4 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.9 29.6 1.1 63.5 62.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 29.8 29.6 26.7 1.4 66.8 65.1 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 30.5 30.4 30.4 1.3 65.5 64.1 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 25.9 25.7 24.4 1.1 65.4 63.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 31.0 31.0 30.3 1.4 66.6 65.0 28.3 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.9 30.3 29.3 0.9 60.3 59.5 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.0 31.0 2.1 73.8 71.4 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.4 29.1 1.5 68.5 66.6 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 31.1 31.0 29.0 1.2 64.8 63.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.6 31.8 27.5 1.7 72.2 70.3 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 30.7 30.5 29.3 1.1 64.1 62.6 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 32.0 32.4 29.2 1.9 74.4 72.3 29.0 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 25.3 25.0 25.7 1.1 64.5 63.0 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.8 30.4 30.1 1.0 62.4 61.2 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------