***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.4 29.4 1.7 72.7 66.2 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.7 29.3 1.5 70.1 64.5 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.0 29.6 1.7 71.2 65.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.6 24.7 28.1 2.6 82.3 73.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.4 28.2 1.9 74.2 66.5 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 29.5 29.9 25.8 1.7 73.4 66.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.4 29.3 1.6 71.3 65.4 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.8 19.1 26.2 1.8 72.6 65.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.2 30.8 28.9 2.1 76.2 67.8 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.4 27.0 1.8 72.4 65.0 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.8 28.2 1.8 72.8 65.3 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.3 27.6 1.9 74.7 66.7 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.1 27.6 1.6 71.5 64.4 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 29.6 29.7 27.7 1.6 70.2 64.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 31.0 32.4 30.0 2.8 85.0 76.6 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.7 32.2 28.1 2.0 75.4 67.3 28.6 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 28.9 28.9 28.9 1.5 69.6 63.9 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.2 26.1 1.7 71.7 64.3 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.5 29.5 1.6 71.4 65.3 26.5 27.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.5 24.0 1.7 71.6 64.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.5 29.3 1.7 72.3 65.4 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 29.4 29.2 28.6 1.2 66.7 61.6 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.1 29.8 2.1 76.3 68.6 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.8 27.9 1.8 72.3 65.2 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.8 28.3 1.9 74.3 67.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.2 27.5 2.1 77.8 69.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 29.8 30.1 28.7 1.8 73.6 66.9 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.2 32.3 28.8 2.5 81.9 73.3 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.7 25.1 1.5 69.9 62.8 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.6 29.4 1.5 70.5 64.8 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------