***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 27.6 28.4 29.1 2.3 78.2 72.1 24.2 25.7 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 27.5 28.2 29.0 2.1 75.7 70.3 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 27.5 28.3 29.5 2.4 78.6 72.5 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 20.8 22.4 28.3 3.3 87.0 79.1 17.6 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 28.2 29.4 28.1 2.8 82.3 75.1 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 27.3 28.0 25.4 2.3 80.0 73.7 24.3 25.6 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.9 28.9 2.1 76.6 70.8 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.7 26.4 2.7 81.7 74.6 13.6 14.9 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 27.7 28.8 28.4 2.8 82.3 75.1 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 27.6 28.7 27.1 2.8 81.7 74.6 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.0 29.3 27.9 2.9 83.0 75.6 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 27.6 28.7 27.7 2.8 82.6 75.4 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 28.5 29.3 26.8 2.5 79.6 73.3 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 27.6 28.3 27.4 2.4 78.0 72.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 28.5 30.0 29.0 3.3 88.0 80.3 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 29.2 30.4 27.8 2.9 83.7 76.5 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.8 27.4 28.6 2.0 75.3 69.7 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 26.7 27.5 26.4 2.7 80.8 74.0 23.5 24.9 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 27.4 28.0 29.2 2.2 76.7 71.1 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 22.9 23.7 23.9 2.5 79.5 72.9 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 27.7 28.6 28.9 2.5 79.7 73.1 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.3 27.8 28.4 1.9 74.4 69.1 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 27.5 28.3 29.4 2.5 79.5 73.5 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 27.3 28.2 27.7 2.6 80.4 74.0 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 27.7 28.8 27.8 2.6 80.8 73.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 28.3 29.2 27.3 2.8 82.5 75.9 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 27.4 28.3 28.3 2.3 79.1 72.7 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 28.5 29.9 28.5 3.3 87.0 79.4 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 22.1 22.9 25.2 2.4 78.8 72.5 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 27.4 28.0 29.1 2.2 76.5 70.9 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------