***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.7 27.3 1.2 64.3 59.6 22.8 24.4 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.6 27.2 1.0 62.8 58.6 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 26.1 25.7 27.6 1.2 64.8 60.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 18.9 19.3 26.2 2.0 73.0 66.3 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 26.5 26.6 26.3 1.6 68.6 63.0 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.3 23.6 1.4 66.9 62.8 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.4 27.2 1.1 63.7 59.3 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 24.6 1.6 68.4 63.1 11.8 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.1 26.2 26.6 1.6 69.1 63.3 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 25.6 25.6 25.3 1.6 68.3 62.8 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.3 26.1 1.6 68.9 63.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.5 25.8 1.6 68.7 63.6 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 26.5 26.2 24.9 1.3 65.3 61.4 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.5 25.6 1.3 65.1 59.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 26.6 27.1 26.9 2.0 74.5 67.9 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 27.2 27.1 25.8 1.6 69.2 63.9 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.9 26.9 1.0 62.7 58.4 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.7 24.6 1.5 67.8 62.1 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.4 27.3 1.1 63.8 59.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.9 20.9 22.2 1.4 67.0 61.8 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.9 27.1 1.3 65.8 60.9 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.3 26.7 1.0 62.3 58.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 25.9 25.7 27.5 1.4 66.4 61.0 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.4 25.9 1.4 67.1 61.5 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.0 26.0 1.4 66.6 61.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 26.0 26.1 25.4 1.6 69.3 64.5 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.7 26.5 1.2 65.0 60.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.8 26.4 2.0 73.0 66.6 23.6 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 20.2 23.6 1.4 66.2 61.0 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.5 27.3 1.1 63.3 59.1 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------