***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.8 6.4 78.2 59.2 36.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 8.1 8.3 99.3 65.0 40.9 1.9 4.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.1 9.8 7.2 100.5 65.8 38.5 1.9 4.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 1.7 8.1 7.2 96.2 64.7 36.1 1.8 4.3 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.4 5.1 6.0 97.8 65.4 37.6 1.4 3.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.6 4.5 4.5 67.2 52.3 32.7 1.8 4.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.2 6.5 8.0 94.3 63.7 42.0 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 3.1 9.2 5.9 77.8 57.3 34.1 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.5 6.1 93.5 64.2 39.6 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.3 7.6 6.5 82.6 59.7 37.3 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.4 5.2 5.4 101.1 65.7 35.3 1.5 3.0 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.6 5.3 5.0 91.0 61.9 33.3 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 1.0 4.4 4.3 81.1 59.2 28.5 1.4 3.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.0 12.9 10.3 112.1 69.0 40.5 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.2 7.0 5.2 101.9 66.6 31.9 1.2 3.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.1 5.6 5.5 100.9 65.7 33.1 1.3 3.0 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.7 7.7 81.6 59.6 42.8 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.6 8.4 89.3 60.8 39.8 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 8.4 8.5 102.0 66.0 40.3 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 2.6 6.3 7.1 70.5 52.1 33.8 2.8 5.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.0 7.5 5.6 81.3 60.3 37.0 1.9 4.8 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.9 9.3 97.0 64.7 44.2 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.9 8.4 102.5 66.2 39.9 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.2 9.8 8.4 104.8 66.8 40.0 2.4 5.2 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.5 5.9 71.0 57.2 35.7 1.4 3.3 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 0.8 3.2 3.1 72.2 56.0 28.6 1.2 2.5 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.4 6.4 72.9 57.5 36.7 3.1 7.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.1 4.9 6.2 102.8 66.5 34.6 1.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 2.5 8.4 8.6 88.7 60.4 38.6 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 9.2 8.1 102.7 66.3 40.4 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------