***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.6 10.7 87.1 61.4 43.8 2.1 4.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.7 8.7 75.5 56.8 39.3 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.6 10.8 90.2 61.5 40.6 2.7 6.5 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.7 13.6 11.6 101.6 66.2 41.8 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.4 11.4 12.1 113.6 69.0 40.3 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.2 9.8 81.7 58.0 40.0 3.0 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.4 8.8 78.8 57.5 41.7 2.7 6.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 4.4 17.2 11.5 102.0 64.6 39.6 4.7 10.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.9 13.2 11.0 102.0 65.4 39.6 2.4 6.7 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.1 11.1 12.0 99.9 64.1 39.3 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 12.0 12.6 120.3 70.4 42.4 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.5 8.2 10.5 109.7 67.5 40.6 2.6 4.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.6 10.0 10.0 109.1 67.6 37.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.7 12.7 11.2 79.7 56.7 37.3 4.5 9.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.9 8.5 10.9 101.9 66.4 42.1 1.7 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.2 11.2 113.4 68.8 41.9 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.1 8.2 72.8 55.3 38.5 5.0 9.3 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 12.7 11.5 85.4 58.8 37.8 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.0 9.3 78.5 57.7 38.9 3.5 7.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 13.2 12.1 93.2 61.2 40.3 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.1 11.1 99.7 65.1 41.5 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.5 12.1 8.1 66.7 52.9 35.9 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.5 10.1 83.8 58.9 39.4 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.2 11.0 10.9 84.1 58.4 36.5 3.6 7.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.7 12.0 91.3 61.9 39.5 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.8 8.3 93.0 61.5 40.6 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.4 11.2 84.3 59.8 40.8 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 9.9 10.4 101.0 66.2 41.3 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.1 11.8 11.8 81.8 56.1 38.2 4.3 9.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.6 9.2 79.4 58.5 40.0 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------