***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.4 8.0 5.9 50.9 48.1 34.7 4.3 8.5 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.2 11.3 7.8 77.1 57.6 40.4 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.5 8.9 6.4 55.0 49.1 36.0 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.9 6.7 4.1 40.5 43.7 30.2 4.0 8.6 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 6.5 3.8 37.9 42.0 30.6 4.3 8.8 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.9 6.9 64.2 53.8 38.4 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.2 8.0 7.7 74.7 57.1 41.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.8 12.5 5.0 46.6 45.7 33.9 7.7 14.4 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.8 4.7 41.6 43.4 33.1 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 9.4 5.4 44.3 44.6 33.7 5.8 11.3 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.2 3.2 34.4 39.1 28.9 4.7 9.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.9 5.8 3.5 39.8 42.0 30.1 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.3 3.9 42.3 43.7 28.0 4.0 7.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.0 11.3 8.3 56.4 48.4 36.6 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.2 3.7 44.0 45.9 30.0 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.2 5.2 3.3 36.9 40.9 26.5 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.3 9.7 8.1 79.2 58.4 42.7 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 7.7 6.4 47.6 44.8 35.0 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.4 10.0 7.6 72.5 55.7 39.4 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 11.2 7.0 57.1 48.6 36.5 6.5 11.6 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.0 6.1 5.1 44.2 44.6 33.8 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.0 12.5 7.8 72.6 55.2 41.0 7.3 11.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.6 9.7 7.1 62.7 51.7 37.5 4.9 9.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.1 10.7 6.7 50.6 46.3 36.3 6.5 12.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.5 5.5 4.8 40.1 42.9 31.2 3.4 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.6 4.2 54.6 50.2 34.4 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.2 5.8 47.7 46.4 33.9 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.7 4.8 3.9 41.3 44.6 29.5 3.1 5.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.2 12.9 7.2 52.3 46.5 36.4 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.8 9.1 7.2 67.7 54.3 38.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------