***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.0 11.4 9.6 98.2 65.7 43.4 2.6 6.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.9 8.4 86.4 62.0 42.5 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.0 10.7 9.4 90.9 63.8 43.0 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.5 19.8 10.2 99.7 66.5 44.4 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.8 9.4 92.5 64.8 43.8 4.6 8.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.6 15.5 12.2 100.9 66.8 46.4 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.4 12.1 8.6 93.1 64.1 42.8 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.3 25.2 10.6 94.6 63.9 47.8 7.7 15.6 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.4 9.7 90.2 64.1 45.1 4.1 7.9 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.9 11.1 90.9 63.5 46.7 4.1 8.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.3 9.5 99.2 66.3 46.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.1 16.2 9.5 100.7 66.2 46.8 4.9 9.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.9 13.7 10.1 96.2 65.4 43.3 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.5 10.8 84.4 61.3 45.5 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 10.5 9.1 106.5 68.4 42.4 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.7 9.5 97.6 66.0 44.9 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.7 13.0 9.0 95.4 65.0 43.4 3.3 7.4 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.1 11.7 86.5 61.6 46.0 4.5 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.3 8.5 84.8 61.5 43.3 3.6 7.8 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 17.8 12.0 86.0 60.2 45.8 6.8 12.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.9 9.7 93.3 64.7 43.1 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.4 9.3 90.8 63.5 44.1 4.6 8.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.9 8.6 84.4 61.6 44.3 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.6 10.6 87.1 62.5 46.2 3.9 8.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 13.5 10.5 99.7 66.6 43.0 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.6 9.0 98.4 65.9 44.8 3.3 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 12.5 10.1 99.8 66.5 44.5 3.0 6.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.8 9.5 97.3 66.0 43.2 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.7 22.0 11.9 87.5 61.3 45.7 8.4 15.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.7 8.3 83.8 61.2 41.9 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------