***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 45.4 37.7 32.6 77.9 49.6 41.1 25.7 37.9 52.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 26.5 38.4 33.3 83.5 51.0 41.6 26.9 37.7 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 50.6 44.0 33.8 82.1 51.6 41.5 29.2 42.7 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 56.3 53.2 33.1 84.4 54.9 44.2 35.5 48.9 64.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 41.7 38.8 31.3 84.8 54.9 43.5 23.7 35.0 48.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 21.7 36.4 33.4 80.4 50.6 42.4 22.9 35.8 51.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 25.2 38.4 33.0 84.4 51.5 41.9 25.7 37.3 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 48.2 68.5 33.0 80.9 50.0 41.2 49.8 68.5 90.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 29.9 43.2 31.4 80.1 51.9 42.4 29.8 41.9 56.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 32.4 45.9 35.0 78.9 49.4 41.0 33.5 46.3 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.6 39.3 30.7 88.3 55.9 44.4 24.8 35.3 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.9 37.4 28.5 85.5 54.0 43.0 23.2 34.3 47.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 21.6 37.1 28.3 82.9 53.4 40.8 23.3 34.5 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 39.4 54.0 40.6 80.0 48.7 40.2 40.7 55.4 71.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.8 30.0 28.9 88.2 57.7 46.1 14.5 24.3 37.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 23.1 39.9 29.6 86.8 55.7 43.3 23.9 35.3 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.0 38.1 33.1 81.8 49.3 41.3 27.5 38.6 51.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 30.1 40.4 38.0 75.9 46.5 39.9 29.9 43.4 58.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 28.9 42.3 33.9 83.4 50.9 41.7 29.4 41.5 55.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 39.9 52.4 38.2 77.6 44.9 39.0 43.0 56.6 71.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.1 37.8 31.5 78.9 51.1 41.5 24.1 37.0 52.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 30.6 43.4 34.5 80.8 47.7 40.6 32.9 45.0 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 29.2 42.2 34.2 81.9 50.5 41.9 29.8 41.8 55.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 58.7 50.1 36.6 78.9 49.4 41.0 36.4 50.4 67.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.5 35.2 33.2 75.7 49.0 40.6 23.1 36.1 52.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.2 31.7 24.6 81.9 52.7 43.2 21.0 30.0 40.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 28.7 41.6 33.6 75.6 48.4 40.6 28.7 42.9 60.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 34.6 32.8 30.0 84.4 55.5 44.7 21.0 29.7 39.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 46.7 61.0 39.4 76.5 45.3 39.1 48.1 66.2 86.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 25.7 37.4 32.8 82.0 50.8 41.2 25.6 36.9 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------