***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 14.4 14.2 16.7 -1.6 20.2 24.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 13.6 13.5 16.6 -1.5 19.5 22.9 14.5 15.4 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 16.5 16.3 17.0 -1.6 19.1 22.0 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.5 12.7 15.1 -0.9 30.6 33.1 12.8 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.6 15.5 -1.3 24.4 27.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.0 -0.8 30.8 32.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 14.2 14.1 16.7 -1.6 18.7 22.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 7.5 7.6 12.8 -1.3 22.9 24.9 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.4 -1.4 20.2 23.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.7 -1.3 21.1 23.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.3 -1.2 24.6 26.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 11.6 11.6 14.1 -1.2 25.9 27.8 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 12.6 12.7 13.9 -1.2 24.6 26.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 14.4 14.3 15.0 -1.4 20.3 22.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.5 15.4 17.3 -0.7 35.1 37.5 15.3 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.9 15.0 -0.8 32.6 34.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 15.0 15.0 16.6 -1.1 25.2 28.5 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 12.0 11.9 13.1 -1.4 20.1 22.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 14.3 14.3 16.8 -1.4 22.0 24.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 8.3 8.3 11.4 -1.2 24.1 25.9 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 13.5 13.3 16.5 -1.6 18.0 20.9 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 13.7 13.8 17.0 -1.0 27.7 30.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.0 17.1 -1.1 27.3 29.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 14.0 13.9 15.1 -1.5 19.3 22.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 13.9 13.8 16.1 -1.5 21.8 25.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 13.2 13.2 12.8 -1.4 21.3 23.5 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 14.1 13.9 16.4 -1.5 22.1 25.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.1 15.8 -0.7 34.7 36.7 13.0 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.4 -1.3 20.0 22.3 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.8 -1.7 18.2 21.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------