***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.9 17.0 -0.9 33.3 37.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.5 16.6 -0.9 33.2 36.8 13.5 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 15.5 15.9 17.3 -0.8 33.7 37.1 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.3 15.4 -0.2 46.3 46.9 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.6 15.7 -0.4 41.4 43.3 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.4 13.7 0.1 52.9 51.7 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.6 16.7 -1.1 30.1 34.3 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.7 13.5 -0.1 47.7 48.0 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.0 15.7 -0.4 41.3 43.4 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.0 14.2 -0.3 44.1 45.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.6 15.5 -0.2 46.4 46.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.0 14.5 -0.1 47.8 48.0 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.9 14.1 -0.2 45.4 46.6 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.3 15.2 -0.6 37.7 40.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 17.3 0.1 52.0 50.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.7 15.0 0.0 48.9 49.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.5 16.5 -0.7 37.3 39.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.1 13.5 -0.4 41.4 43.7 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.8 -0.7 36.4 39.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.3 11.5 -0.3 43.3 45.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.4 16.8 -0.7 36.9 39.9 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.5 16.8 -0.6 39.1 40.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.6 17.1 -0.4 42.0 43.2 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.0 15.3 -0.5 38.7 41.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.6 16.3 -0.6 39.4 41.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 13.5 -0.3 43.4 45.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.7 16.6 -0.7 36.6 39.8 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 16.1 0.0 51.0 50.2 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.6 12.8 -0.4 40.6 43.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.8 -1.0 30.8 35.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------