***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.4 17.0 0.3 55.4 54.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.7 13.4 16.8 0.4 58.6 55.6 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 17.4 0.3 57.7 55.5 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.1 15.2 0.6 62.5 59.8 9.3 10.4 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.4 15.1 0.4 59.4 57.8 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.8 13.4 0.7 65.7 62.8 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.5 17.0 0.3 56.7 54.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.2 13.2 0.6 64.3 61.6 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.0 13.4 15.1 0.4 59.3 57.7 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 0.5 62.0 59.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.3 14.7 0.5 62.5 60.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.7 14.0 0.6 63.3 61.3 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.6 13.0 0.4 59.4 58.2 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.9 14.0 15.0 0.4 59.5 57.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.9 16.5 0.7 66.7 62.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.2 14.1 0.6 63.3 61.0 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.0 16.7 0.6 62.3 58.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.1 13.1 0.5 62.1 60.0 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.6 16.9 0.4 59.5 56.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.4 10.9 0.5 62.6 60.6 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 16.5 0.3 57.0 55.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.0 16.7 0.5 59.9 56.8 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.2 17.0 0.5 61.5 58.0 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.0 13.6 15.0 0.5 61.8 59.1 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.5 15.7 0.4 57.8 56.2 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.8 13.0 0.6 63.3 61.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.6 16.3 0.4 57.5 55.8 12.0 13.1 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.7 15.6 0.7 65.8 62.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.0 12.5 0.5 60.8 59.1 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.6 17.0 0.3 56.5 54.3 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------