***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.7 15.8 0.2 53.7 51.9 10.7 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.9 15.5 0.3 55.3 52.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 16.2 0.3 55.7 53.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.5 13.7 0.4 56.7 54.4 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.9 13.8 0.4 57.0 54.3 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 12.1 0.4 57.9 55.1 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.9 15.6 0.2 53.2 51.0 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.6 11.8 0.5 58.9 55.8 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 13.9 0.5 57.9 55.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 12.6 0.5 59.0 55.9 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 13.4 0.5 58.4 55.5 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.9 12.6 0.4 58.3 55.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.6 11.8 0.3 54.9 53.1 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 13.9 0.4 57.9 54.9 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.8 15.1 0.5 58.5 55.9 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 12.8 0.4 57.5 54.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.5 15.3 0.4 57.6 54.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.7 12.0 0.5 59.7 56.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 15.6 0.4 56.6 53.3 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.8 9.7 0.4 57.8 55.1 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 15.2 0.3 55.1 52.8 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.6 15.4 0.4 57.2 54.1 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.6 15.8 0.5 58.9 55.1 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.0 13.8 0.5 59.2 55.9 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.7 14.4 0.3 54.2 52.5 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.9 11.7 0.3 55.6 53.7 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.2 15.1 0.3 54.4 52.6 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.6 14.2 0.5 58.8 56.0 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.6 11.4 0.4 58.3 55.3 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.2 15.7 0.2 54.1 51.7 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------