***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 28.0 28.0 27.5 -1.7 26.1 29.2 28.6 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 27.4 27.2 27.4 -2.3 19.1 22.4 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.8 27.8 27.8 -1.7 26.8 29.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 23.1 22.7 26.5 0.0 49.9 50.3 21.2 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.8 29.6 27.1 -0.7 40.2 41.6 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 29.1 28.9 25.1 0.1 51.8 51.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 27.2 26.9 27.2 -2.3 19.6 23.1 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.4 17.4 25.0 -0.5 42.7 43.8 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 30.0 28.9 27.8 -0.7 40.5 42.0 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.8 28.7 25.8 -0.6 41.1 42.3 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 30.3 29.6 27.7 -0.3 45.6 46.4 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 29.5 28.9 26.4 -0.3 46.2 46.8 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 30.6 30.2 27.2 0.0 50.0 50.1 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.0 26.8 -1.2 33.5 35.3 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 30.6 30.4 29.3 0.1 51.5 51.7 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 31.3 31.0 27.5 0.1 51.1 51.2 29.5 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.2 -1.9 22.9 26.1 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.9 27.4 24.6 -0.9 37.4 38.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 27.3 27.3 27.7 -1.9 24.4 27.4 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.6 22.8 -0.7 40.1 41.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.3 28.1 -1.3 32.3 34.5 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 27.8 27.9 27.6 -1.5 29.4 32.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.3 28.4 -1.0 36.5 38.4 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.5 27.8 26.8 -1.1 35.1 37.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.3 28.4 26.9 -1.2 32.7 35.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 30.3 29.0 25.5 -0.7 40.5 41.6 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.8 27.8 27.1 -1.4 28.9 31.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 30.7 30.7 28.0 0.3 54.3 54.2 29.0 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 22.8 23.9 -0.9 37.8 39.3 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 27.1 26.9 27.4 -2.3 19.6 22.9 28.2 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------