***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.5 -1.0 36.4 39.2 27.1 28.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 26.4 26.7 27.5 -1.2 34.5 37.6 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.9 -0.9 38.3 40.6 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.1 21.8 26.6 0.1 51.6 51.8 20.4 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.8 27.0 -0.2 46.9 47.7 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.3 25.2 0.4 56.1 55.0 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.3 27.5 -1.2 34.3 37.4 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 25.2 0.0 50.0 50.5 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.1 27.4 -0.2 47.3 47.9 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.2 25.8 -0.1 48.3 48.9 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.7 27.3 0.0 50.6 50.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.2 26.6 0.2 52.2 52.3 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.4 26.7 0.3 53.5 53.2 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.3 26.2 -0.6 42.2 43.7 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.3 28.7 0.3 53.8 53.6 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.1 27.1 0.3 53.8 53.5 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.4 27.4 -0.8 39.7 42.1 25.8 27.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.0 24.7 -0.3 46.6 47.5 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.2 26.7 27.8 -0.9 38.6 40.9 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.4 22.9 0.0 49.6 50.3 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.6 27.6 27.8 -0.7 40.9 42.7 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.2 27.5 -0.5 43.2 44.8 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.5 28.2 -0.3 46.6 47.2 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.2 26.5 -0.5 43.8 45.0 26.3 27.7 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.6 26.6 -0.7 40.4 42.4 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.0 26.3 0.3 53.6 53.5 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.0 27.0 -0.8 39.0 41.3 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.5 27.7 0.3 54.8 54.5 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.6 23.9 -0.3 46.3 47.4 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.0 26.4 27.5 -1.3 33.5 36.7 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------