***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.1 27.3 -0.3 46.0 48.0 23.9 25.4 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.1 27.3 -0.3 45.7 47.0 23.9 25.4 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.4 27.8 -0.1 48.5 49.8 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.2 26.4 0.5 57.2 56.3 17.3 18.7 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.6 26.6 0.3 54.4 54.3 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.8 26.1 24.4 0.7 61.0 59.6 23.9 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.8 24.8 27.2 -0.3 45.1 46.5 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.1 24.9 0.5 57.4 56.6 13.2 14.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 26.6 0.3 54.1 53.9 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.0 25.4 0.4 56.0 55.4 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.6 26.5 0.6 58.7 57.3 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.0 26.2 0.6 58.2 57.3 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.9 25.4 0.4 56.2 56.5 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.2 25.7 -0.1 48.9 50.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 27.8 27.1 27.5 0.7 60.7 58.7 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.7 26.2 0.6 59.3 58.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.8 27.3 0.0 49.4 49.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.8 24.6 0.3 53.7 53.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.0 27.6 -0.2 47.5 48.6 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.2 22.4 0.3 54.7 55.1 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.6 27.2 -0.1 49.3 50.5 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.2 27.2 -0.1 49.1 49.6 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.3 27.7 0.1 50.8 51.3 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.2 26.0 0.1 51.7 52.2 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.6 25.9 -0.1 48.4 49.8 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 27.6 26.8 25.9 0.6 59.1 58.5 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.3 26.5 -0.2 47.7 49.1 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 26.9 27.2 27.0 0.7 60.5 58.8 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.2 23.6 0.2 52.2 53.0 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.6 24.9 27.3 -0.4 44.7 46.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------