***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.2 25.8 0.0 50.3 50.1 22.5 24.2 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.7 26.0 0.2 52.5 51.2 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.6 26.4 0.3 53.4 52.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.4 24.6 0.4 55.0 54.1 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.9 24.9 0.3 53.5 53.0 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.8 22.6 0.3 53.6 53.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.2 25.9 0.1 51.5 50.6 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.6 23.4 0.5 55.9 54.8 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 25.0 0.4 54.4 53.4 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.4 23.9 0.5 55.7 54.5 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.9 24.8 0.5 55.9 54.9 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.1 24.5 0.5 55.4 54.5 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.8 23.6 0.2 52.0 52.2 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.7 24.5 0.5 55.8 53.8 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.5 25.7 0.6 57.6 56.1 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.6 24.5 0.4 55.1 54.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.1 25.8 0.4 54.6 52.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.6 23.2 0.5 55.9 54.4 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.6 26.3 0.4 54.1 52.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.8 21.0 0.5 55.5 54.4 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.5 25.6 0.2 51.8 51.4 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.6 25.8 0.4 55.0 52.8 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.8 26.5 0.6 56.8 54.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.3 24.6 0.5 55.8 54.1 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.3 24.3 0.0 50.0 50.2 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.7 24.1 0.3 53.1 52.6 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.3 25.0 0.0 50.5 50.4 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.4 25.2 0.6 57.0 55.7 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.0 22.3 0.5 55.3 54.1 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.4 26.0 0.1 51.4 50.6 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------