***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.9 26.3 27.0 -0.7 35.8 38.5 26.2 27.0 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 25.7 26.0 27.1 -0.9 32.0 35.8 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 25.9 26.3 27.5 -0.6 38.3 40.7 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.3 26.0 0.3 55.0 54.2 19.2 20.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.5 26.4 -0.1 48.5 48.9 26.8 27.6 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.7 24.3 0.4 58.2 57.2 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.9 -0.9 31.8 35.3 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.8 24.6 0.1 52.6 52.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.9 26.7 0.0 49.1 49.3 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 27.1 26.8 25.2 0.0 50.9 50.9 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 27.5 27.4 26.6 0.2 54.1 53.5 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.8 25.9 0.2 54.6 54.0 25.7 26.5 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 27.8 27.8 25.8 0.2 54.2 53.9 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.4 25.8 -0.4 43.3 44.4 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.9 28.0 27.8 0.4 58.4 57.1 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.5 26.3 0.4 57.1 56.1 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 25.2 25.6 26.9 -0.6 37.5 40.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.1 25.7 24.3 -0.1 48.3 48.9 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 25.5 25.9 27.4 -0.7 37.0 39.7 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.2 22.0 22.3 0.0 50.6 50.9 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.6 27.2 -0.5 41.1 42.7 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.3 27.0 -0.4 41.5 43.2 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.5 27.7 -0.1 47.1 47.4 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.2 26.0 -0.2 45.6 46.4 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.6 25.9 -0.5 40.3 42.0 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.4 25.4 0.1 52.3 52.5 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.2 26.4 -0.6 38.4 40.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.1 27.0 0.5 59.5 58.0 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.2 23.4 -0.1 47.6 48.3 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 25.6 25.8 27.1 -1.0 31.5 35.2 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------