***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.2 5.7 71.4 56.9 40.8 2.8 6.2 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.7 5.8 91.7 63.7 49.9 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.1 5.2 77.5 58.6 41.8 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.6 4.7 73.3 57.5 40.1 2.0 4.8 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.3 3.2 3.3 58.7 51.2 34.8 1.5 3.0 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.1 4.0 3.2 55.3 47.0 36.0 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.5 11.5 6.6 96.6 65.2 49.0 2.9 6.4 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.9 4.8 75.4 55.8 41.6 3.2 7.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.7 4.2 69.3 56.3 37.5 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.7 5.1 70.2 55.4 40.5 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.8 3.1 66.9 53.6 36.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.9 2.9 61.9 49.7 36.0 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.1 2.3 1.7 43.2 42.6 29.5 1.3 3.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.9 11.9 8.0 94.5 64.0 47.8 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.7 3.3 65.3 54.8 37.2 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 1.0 2.6 2.6 52.8 48.0 32.5 1.2 2.9 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 9.4 7.0 121.2 71.1 55.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.8 6.4 78.7 57.2 45.3 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.9 5.8 90.1 63.4 49.1 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.6 5.9 73.5 54.1 42.2 2.4 5.4 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.5 4.6 67.0 55.1 37.2 2.2 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.7 6.9 112.4 69.1 52.1 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.3 6.3 94.3 64.5 48.6 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.8 6.6 90.7 62.4 45.8 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.4 4.7 56.9 52.4 36.8 1.7 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.2 1.8 1.3 42.9 35.6 26.5 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.1 10.1 5.6 63.3 54.6 39.8 4.0 8.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.2 3.6 67.1 54.6 37.9 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.8 7.2 89.0 60.4 46.8 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.7 5.7 79.9 60.8 46.6 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------