***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.7 13.5 11.0 128.8 72.9 45.4 2.8 5.9 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.6 11.1 120.6 71.0 49.8 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.5 17.0 10.4 119.5 70.3 45.3 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.1 22.1 9.3 154.0 78.3 43.9 3.6 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.5 19.0 9.5 144.5 75.9 45.4 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 14.1 10.6 133.6 74.0 47.6 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.5 13.0 11.8 126.6 72.8 50.0 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 27.3 10.2 123.3 71.2 44.3 5.9 12.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.1 23.0 9.7 135.7 74.5 44.0 3.6 8.6 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 22.4 10.7 126.2 72.2 45.5 5.3 10.6 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.5 13.8 8.7 115.6 68.0 40.5 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.6 10.5 8.2 120.4 70.1 41.3 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.3 12.9 7.3 114.6 69.0 35.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.1 24.3 13.0 113.5 68.9 46.1 5.7 12.1 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 14.8 9.3 194.2 85.3 47.9 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.0 14.8 7.6 123.5 71.1 40.7 3.3 7.0 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.8 11.3 110.4 68.8 48.7 4.0 8.1 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.8 18.9 12.0 112.2 68.4 44.2 4.8 9.8 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.3 10.9 116.6 69.9 48.6 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 20.8 13.0 117.8 69.4 47.1 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.5 17.3 8.9 121.8 70.9 40.8 3.9 8.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 18.7 11.4 110.5 68.9 49.9 4.3 9.3 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 15.2 11.0 110.0 67.8 45.6 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.3 21.3 11.1 110.3 67.9 45.7 5.3 11.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 19.1 11.1 133.9 74.0 49.5 3.8 8.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 13.3 8.8 121.4 70.6 46.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.7 21.1 12.3 136.5 74.6 49.6 4.5 9.0 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.6 17.0 8.6 169.7 80.6 45.9 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 24.3 13.3 113.9 68.3 45.9 6.7 13.3 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.3 11.2 124.8 72.0 49.0 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------