***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.7 15.5 9.6 111.3 69.2 47.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.7 16.0 8.7 101.5 66.3 49.0 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.7 9.5 110.7 69.0 51.0 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.5 23.0 9.7 144.9 76.3 47.4 4.4 9.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.0 23.3 8.9 154.6 78.3 49.6 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 22.7 9.7 155.6 78.5 50.5 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.8 13.4 9.2 111.6 69.0 49.9 4.7 8.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.4 34.2 10.0 153.1 77.9 55.1 8.4 15.2 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 19.6 9.2 142.3 75.9 52.3 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 24.6 10.8 151.9 77.8 55.7 6.1 10.9 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.1 24.4 8.6 159.8 79.4 52.2 5.0 9.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.8 26.0 8.1 156.6 78.9 52.4 4.7 9.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.8 23.5 8.5 162.6 80.0 47.5 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.5 19.7 10.3 115.7 69.6 53.2 6.3 11.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 11.5 8.1 131.0 73.2 45.2 2.1 4.7 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.8 22.6 8.6 169.4 81.0 49.2 3.8 7.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.8 9.1 109.7 68.1 49.2 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 20.1 11.1 134.0 74.1 54.9 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.8 8.5 104.2 67.0 50.4 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 22.0 11.1 124.6 71.0 51.3 6.5 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.7 8.9 116.4 70.3 48.1 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.7 17.6 9.2 111.9 68.7 50.0 9.0 12.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.5 18.1 8.9 117.6 70.5 53.3 6.2 10.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.9 19.4 9.9 121.0 71.0 53.4 5.5 10.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.0 16.7 10.0 120.2 71.5 49.8 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 20.3 6.5 162.7 80.0 45.4 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 15.9 10.5 123.5 72.1 49.9 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.6 15.9 9.5 158.6 78.9 48.3 3.5 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.8 30.0 11.5 126.0 71.9 54.9 7.1 14.2 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.7 15.3 9.3 109.5 68.5 51.0 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------