***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.1 7.5 73.9 57.5 41.6 2.4 5.8 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.1 6.0 68.9 55.8 40.4 2.2 4.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.4 7.2 71.5 56.0 39.4 2.4 5.6 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.3 6.5 62.0 55.7 36.9 4.8 10.0 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.6 6.3 69.6 58.1 38.5 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.0 8.6 96.7 66.1 43.9 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.2 5.6 66.1 54.5 39.1 2.4 6.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 18.4 7.1 82.3 60.4 43.7 5.9 12.6 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.3 6.7 71.3 58.2 39.7 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.8 7.8 79.6 60.0 43.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.9 8.3 6.1 81.1 60.9 40.6 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.0 5.7 85.4 62.1 41.9 3.7 7.3 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.5 6.8 93.4 64.7 41.3 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.3 12.0 9.7 81.5 60.7 42.6 3.3 7.6 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 4.2 5.3 53.1 52.4 34.7 1.6 3.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.3 10.9 6.2 84.6 62.4 40.3 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.0 5.7 73.5 57.2 41.1 2.4 5.9 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.6 8.7 79.5 58.4 43.4 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.5 6.3 70.5 56.2 40.0 2.7 6.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 14.3 8.9 80.0 58.1 44.8 5.5 10.8 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.3 7.1 74.2 58.3 38.8 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.6 5.8 67.4 54.7 39.9 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.7 6.7 73.5 57.2 40.3 2.1 5.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.5 8.4 77.4 58.7 41.8 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.3 8.2 84.0 61.8 41.7 2.7 6.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.4 5.3 92.6 64.3 43.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.5 7.9 80.8 60.1 42.7 2.6 6.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.9 6.1 62.1 55.8 37.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 16.8 8.9 79.2 58.2 43.6 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.3 6.2 66.9 54.5 39.4 2.6 6.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------