***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 47.2 47.2 33.8 95.8 58.7 48.0 26.7 39.3 54.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 45.1 45.2 31.5 96.2 58.7 49.0 27.1 38.4 51.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 31.1 52.5 32.3 94.7 57.7 47.8 30.5 45.0 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 56.2 62.1 30.2 101.9 62.9 50.1 36.1 49.8 65.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 42.7 47.5 28.0 103.3 63.2 49.2 24.3 36.2 50.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 44.5 52.4 32.1 111.4 65.8 51.6 23.7 36.6 52.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 45.1 47.2 33.2 100.9 60.7 48.5 26.0 38.1 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 79.8 88.4 32.1 107.3 63.7 51.7 49.0 68.9 92.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 49.6 53.7 29.8 102.4 62.5 49.1 30.5 42.9 57.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.0 59.5 34.4 105.2 63.0 50.8 34.2 47.4 62.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 42.1 46.1 26.5 104.7 63.2 49.9 24.8 35.8 48.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.4 47.1 24.9 106.1 63.5 49.9 24.3 35.7 49.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 22.5 46.8 24.3 106.6 63.9 47.1 24.2 35.3 48.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 38.3 68.3 41.0 100.8 60.1 49.7 41.1 57.1 75.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.2 35.1 26.0 100.2 63.1 50.5 14.5 24.8 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.7 47.8 25.0 106.1 64.1 49.3 24.4 36.0 49.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 45.5 48.1 33.1 103.2 61.9 50.4 27.5 38.8 52.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 31.9 54.7 38.3 100.3 59.6 48.9 31.4 45.7 62.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 29.8 49.7 31.5 95.7 58.4 49.0 29.6 42.3 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 63.1 63.3 38.9 99.5 58.7 48.5 36.6 53.3 73.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 47.0 47.2 29.5 93.9 58.9 46.9 25.4 38.8 55.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 33.2 54.8 33.3 100.0 60.7 50.1 33.6 45.9 59.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 30.1 50.3 32.9 98.6 59.2 48.9 30.4 42.6 57.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 36.4 61.0 36.0 98.8 59.5 49.4 37.0 51.7 68.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 45.4 48.5 34.0 98.2 60.6 49.7 24.0 37.6 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 20.6 41.1 21.9 109.3 64.9 49.2 21.9 31.0 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 54.0 56.8 36.4 100.2 60.9 49.8 30.4 45.1 63.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.1 39.9 27.8 105.1 64.6 51.0 21.0 30.3 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 77.7 80.0 40.7 101.7 60.0 49.3 49.1 67.4 88.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 44.8 44.7 32.3 95.7 58.3 48.7 26.4 38.0 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------