***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 0.5 61.4 60.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.1 18.1 -0.1 47.0 47.1 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 18.0 18.0 18.6 0.1 53.4 53.0 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.9 13.8 16.3 0.1 53.7 53.5 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 13.7 14.1 16.7 0.4 61.4 59.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.0 14.3 0.2 55.6 55.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 15.7 15.9 18.6 0.2 55.8 55.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.8 8.9 14.4 0.2 56.1 55.1 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.7 17.6 0.8 70.8 68.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.3 15.5 0.5 64.9 63.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.3 14.5 16.1 0.3 57.6 56.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.6 12.7 15.3 0.3 57.4 56.2 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 14.2 14.4 15.6 0.8 71.1 68.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.7 16.9 0.2 55.8 55.3 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 17.0 16.9 18.7 0.8 70.3 67.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.9 16.1 0.6 63.9 62.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.1 15.6 17.5 -0.2 45.0 45.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.3 14.5 0.2 56.5 55.8 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 15.5 15.3 18.2 0.0 49.7 49.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.7 11.9 -0.3 41.4 42.1 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.9 18.5 0.3 57.9 57.0 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 14.8 14.5 18.0 -0.1 48.1 48.1 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 14.8 14.9 18.5 0.2 55.4 54.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 15.1 15.4 16.8 0.3 59.6 58.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.3 17.8 0.3 56.3 55.6 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 14.6 14.5 14.8 0.6 64.0 62.7 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.5 18.2 0.6 62.9 61.6 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.0 17.2 0.4 60.3 59.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.3 13.7 0.2 55.1 54.5 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 15.9 15.8 18.6 0.1 52.3 52.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------