***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.0 16.9 0.5 60.0 56.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.9 16.9 0.5 58.9 55.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.0 16.7 0.3 57.2 54.1 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.1 14.5 0.2 54.5 52.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.8 14.2 0.3 57.3 54.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.0 12.6 0.4 59.3 55.7 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 17.0 0.6 60.7 57.2 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.5 12.6 0.6 63.7 58.6 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 14.6 0.5 61.5 57.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.9 13.1 0.5 61.8 57.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 13.8 0.4 59.2 55.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.2 13.7 0.6 63.7 58.8 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 12.9 0.4 59.8 56.4 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 14.7 0.3 57.3 54.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.9 15.5 0.4 57.7 55.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.3 13.5 0.3 56.7 54.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.4 16.2 0.4 57.4 54.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.7 12.5 0.4 60.4 56.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 16.8 0.4 58.7 55.5 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 10.7 0.2 55.3 52.8 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.7 15.9 0.5 59.6 55.8 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.5 16.2 0.3 56.2 54.0 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.7 16.5 0.5 59.6 56.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.9 14.5 0.4 59.2 55.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.1 15.3 0.5 60.1 56.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 13.2 0.4 58.4 55.5 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.4 16.1 0.6 61.5 58.0 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 14.8 0.2 53.3 51.8 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.3 11.9 0.4 60.0 55.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.3 17.1 0.5 58.8 55.7 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------