***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.6 15.6 0.3 54.9 54.3 10.3 11.3 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.6 15.5 0.2 54.0 53.3 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.4 13.8 15.4 0.1 51.8 52.3 12.6 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.3 13.1 -0.1 48.6 49.9 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.1 12.7 0.0 49.6 50.9 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.2 0.2 53.7 53.1 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.9 15.6 0.3 56.2 54.5 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.8 11.2 0.3 57.0 56.4 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.8 13.2 0.2 53.6 53.6 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.5 11.7 0.2 54.4 54.4 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.8 12.3 0.0 50.3 51.5 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.5 12.2 0.2 55.1 54.8 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.2 11.5 0.1 52.0 52.2 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.9 13.2 0.0 48.8 50.8 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.3 14.0 0.2 53.5 53.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.5 12.0 -0.1 48.8 50.0 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.9 12.1 14.8 0.1 52.9 52.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.6 10.1 11.2 0.1 52.1 52.9 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.7 15.4 0.1 52.7 52.8 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.3 9.4 0.0 50.4 51.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 14.5 0.1 52.9 53.1 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.1 14.8 0.0 50.5 51.2 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.1 15.0 0.1 51.6 52.4 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.5 13.1 0.0 51.1 52.3 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 14.0 0.2 53.8 53.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.6 11.8 0.1 52.9 53.1 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 14.8 0.3 56.0 55.1 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.7 13.4 -0.1 48.6 49.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.3 10.5 0.1 51.7 52.8 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.0 15.7 0.2 53.9 53.3 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------