***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.7 17.3 0.4 60.7 57.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.4 17.0 0.1 52.8 51.7 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.8 17.1 0.1 54.7 52.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.2 14.8 0.0 51.3 50.0 10.6 11.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.2 14.7 0.2 56.9 54.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.4 12.9 0.2 57.9 54.9 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.8 17.2 0.3 57.3 55.2 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.2 13.0 0.4 64.0 59.6 6.3 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.7 15.2 0.5 65.4 60.8 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.5 13.6 0.4 64.4 60.0 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.9 14.2 0.2 58.0 55.2 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.4 13.9 0.4 63.6 59.3 10.6 11.0 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.5 13.5 0.4 64.2 60.0 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.9 15.0 0.1 53.5 51.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 16.1 0.3 60.9 57.5 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.8 14.0 0.2 57.9 55.2 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.9 16.3 0.0 50.2 49.8 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.9 12.9 0.2 59.2 56.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.6 17.0 0.1 53.5 52.1 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.7 10.9 0.0 48.8 48.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.2 16.4 0.3 59.5 56.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.9 16.4 0.0 49.6 49.5 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.0 16.8 0.2 56.1 53.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 0.2 58.5 55.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.4 15.8 0.3 58.3 55.6 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.6 13.5 0.4 61.2 58.2 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.7 14.0 16.5 0.4 62.2 59.0 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 15.2 0.1 53.4 51.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 12.2 0.2 57.6 54.8 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.9 17.3 0.2 54.9 53.3 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------