***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 27.6 27.6 27.2 -2.0 24.9 26.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.2 -2.7 20.0 22.4 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.0 -2.5 21.1 23.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 20.4 20.4 24.8 -2.0 26.7 29.7 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.1 28.2 25.8 -1.8 28.2 30.6 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 29.1 27.4 23.7 -1.1 36.2 38.6 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 26.9 26.7 27.3 -2.3 22.3 24.9 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 16.8 24.4 -1.1 37.0 39.1 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.6 27.7 26.7 -1.6 30.0 32.2 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.8 27.9 25.1 -1.4 33.5 35.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.1 25.7 -1.6 31.4 33.7 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.5 27.9 25.5 -1.0 37.9 39.9 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.6 29.2 25.7 -0.9 39.2 40.9 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.5 -2.6 21.5 23.4 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.5 27.4 -1.4 32.6 36.0 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.3 29.4 25.8 -1.3 34.8 36.9 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 26.0 25.8 26.4 -2.9 17.1 19.9 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.3 26.4 23.8 -1.8 29.1 31.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 26.5 26.3 27.2 -2.6 20.5 22.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.4 22.6 22.0 -1.6 31.3 33.6 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.2 27.2 27.1 -2.2 24.7 27.0 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 26.5 26.2 26.3 -3.0 16.8 19.5 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.0 -2.4 23.2 25.3 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 26.5 26.4 25.5 -2.2 24.3 26.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 27.1 27.2 25.7 -2.2 23.3 25.5 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 30.1 28.6 25.1 -1.0 38.1 39.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.4 -2.1 23.7 25.8 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 28.3 28.5 26.1 -1.6 31.0 34.3 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 21.7 21.8 23.1 -1.8 29.2 31.4 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 26.8 26.6 27.4 -2.5 21.5 23.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------