***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.7 26.2 27.4 -1.2 34.7 37.3 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 25.0 25.6 27.6 -1.5 31.8 35.4 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 25.3 25.7 27.4 -1.5 31.8 34.9 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 19.2 19.6 25.5 -1.5 32.0 34.6 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.8 25.6 -1.3 34.1 36.4 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.6 26.4 23.9 -0.7 40.7 42.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 24.9 25.5 27.6 -1.3 34.1 37.2 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.9 24.6 -0.6 42.0 42.9 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 25.6 26.4 26.2 -1.1 36.8 38.7 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 25.6 26.5 25.0 -0.9 38.6 40.2 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 26.1 26.9 25.5 -0.9 38.5 40.0 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.7 25.7 -0.6 42.7 43.5 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.5 24.9 -0.8 39.6 41.0 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 24.9 25.2 25.4 -1.7 29.9 33.8 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.3 26.3 -1.0 37.2 39.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.8 25.2 -1.0 37.4 39.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 24.2 24.4 26.8 -1.9 26.9 31.7 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 24.5 25.2 24.0 -1.2 34.7 37.2 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 24.8 25.3 27.6 -1.5 31.5 35.2 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 20.9 21.4 22.0 -1.2 34.3 36.8 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 25.5 26.1 26.8 -1.3 33.9 36.4 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 24.8 24.9 26.7 -1.9 26.7 31.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.5 27.3 -1.4 32.5 36.1 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 24.8 25.3 25.5 -1.4 32.5 35.5 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 25.6 26.1 25.6 -1.4 32.5 35.2 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 28.5 27.1 25.1 -0.9 38.7 40.4 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 25.3 25.9 26.5 -1.2 34.8 37.3 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.6 27.2 26.0 -1.2 34.9 37.1 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 20.2 20.8 23.0 -1.2 34.3 37.0 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 25.1 25.6 27.8 -1.4 33.3 36.4 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------