***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.9 27.2 0.1 51.6 50.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.2 27.4 0.1 51.8 51.5 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.9 27.0 -0.1 48.4 48.8 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 16.3 17.3 25.0 -0.5 43.0 44.8 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.2 25.1 -0.3 45.7 46.9 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.3 23.2 -0.1 48.4 49.2 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.1 27.4 0.3 54.8 53.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.9 23.8 0.1 51.6 51.2 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.1 25.6 0.0 49.8 49.9 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.8 24.3 0.0 50.2 50.2 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.1 24.8 -0.1 48.1 48.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.7 24.8 0.1 50.8 50.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.5 24.2 -0.2 47.4 48.4 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.8 25.0 -0.1 48.4 48.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.4 25.8 -0.3 46.5 47.4 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.9 24.5 -0.3 45.5 47.0 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.3 26.8 0.0 49.6 49.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.8 23.4 -0.1 48.7 48.9 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.8 27.3 0.0 50.4 50.5 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.6 19.9 21.4 -0.2 47.0 47.3 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.1 26.4 -0.1 48.5 48.8 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.7 26.6 -0.1 48.3 48.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.8 27.0 0.0 50.5 50.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.5 25.1 -0.1 48.7 49.1 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.6 25.0 25.3 -0.2 47.7 48.1 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.1 24.4 -0.2 46.8 47.6 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.1 26.2 0.1 51.9 51.1 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.2 25.4 -0.5 43.7 45.5 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.3 22.5 -0.1 48.6 48.6 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.0 27.5 0.1 51.8 51.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------