***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.9 -0.8 36.5 38.4 25.8 26.7 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 25.4 25.7 27.0 -1.0 32.4 35.3 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.7 -1.0 31.9 34.5 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 18.5 18.8 24.7 -1.1 31.3 33.8 18.9 19.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 26.1 26.5 25.0 -0.9 34.0 36.1 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.9 25.5 23.1 -0.5 40.5 41.4 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.5 27.0 -0.8 35.9 38.1 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.1 23.8 -0.4 43.2 43.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 25.6 26.1 25.7 -0.7 38.0 39.6 25.9 26.6 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 25.4 26.0 24.3 -0.6 40.0 41.1 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.8 26.3 24.8 -0.7 37.8 39.3 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.9 24.8 -0.4 43.4 43.8 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.8 24.4 -0.5 40.9 41.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 25.2 25.4 24.9 -1.1 31.1 33.7 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 26.2 26.7 25.9 -0.7 37.3 39.1 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.2 24.7 -0.7 37.4 38.9 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 24.5 24.7 26.3 -1.3 27.7 31.5 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 24.5 24.9 23.3 -0.8 35.9 37.6 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 25.1 25.3 27.0 -1.0 32.1 35.1 25.4 26.2 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 20.5 20.9 21.3 -0.8 35.1 37.0 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 25.6 25.9 26.3 -0.9 34.2 36.3 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 25.0 25.2 26.1 -1.3 27.3 31.3 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 25.3 25.5 26.7 -0.9 34.0 36.6 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 25.0 25.3 24.9 -0.9 33.4 35.6 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 25.6 25.9 25.1 -1.0 32.9 35.3 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.4 24.4 -0.6 39.6 40.5 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 25.4 25.8 25.9 -0.8 36.3 38.3 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 26.3 26.7 25.3 -0.9 34.3 36.5 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.3 22.4 -0.8 35.2 37.1 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 25.2 25.6 27.1 -0.9 34.0 36.5 25.5 26.4 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------