***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 14.3 33.8 23.7 317.5 94.3 87.2 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 15.4 30.9 19.3 280.7 92.1 83.1 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 15.2 27.3 19.4 261.9 91.2 84.6 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 14.4 22.6 20.8 195.2 84.4 76.2 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 8.1 12.4 19.7 186.7 83.5 74.6 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.6 12.0 16.8 161.6 79.4 68.9 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 19.4 48.1 20.9 310.7 93.8 85.2 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 14.6 19.7 16.5 151.9 77.4 66.2 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 14.0 24.4 20.6 211.6 86.6 77.9 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 11.3 16.6 20.1 182.2 82.6 74.1 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 9.3 15.1 16.4 182.1 82.7 70.2 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 6.1 8.2 13.5 157.4 78.5 63.4 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 6.8 9.9 14.2 153.3 78.1 68.0 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 19.5 32.3 22.2 228.7 88.5 81.4 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.2 17.8 16.2 179.9 82.1 71.8 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 7.5 11.9 14.8 165.3 80.1 68.5 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 14.0 35.8 21.9 340.0 95.2 84.1 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 16.8 25.8 21.8 194.3 83.9 76.4 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 14.5 30.8 18.7 267.3 91.5 82.4 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 6.6 13.6 16.9 133.1 73.8 65.8 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 13.6 27.6 21.1 254.2 90.6 83.0 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 17.0 47.7 21.4 333.7 95.2 84.8 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 14.3 26.8 18.5 246.4 90.1 80.7 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 16.6 28.1 21.3 230.7 88.7 81.9 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 9.6 19.1 26.5 272.5 91.8 85.6 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 5.7 7.2 12.4 140.7 75.6 65.5 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 17.6 38.9 27.4 312.3 94.4 87.8 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.9 11.4 16.9 170.3 80.9 70.7 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 15.2 21.1 20.1 176.6 80.5 72.5 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 12.6 24.7 19.7 275.8 92.3 84.0 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------