***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.2 30.7 8.7 221.5 88.0 53.8 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.1 28.3 10.7 191.3 83.8 61.0 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 21.4 46.8 10.2 231.8 89.3 63.2 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 21.2 52.7 14.4 304.2 93.7 68.5 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 21.2 50.6 14.7 284.8 93.0 69.7 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 16.9 30.6 21.5 246.2 88.9 70.1 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.2 20.3 10.6 187.3 83.3 58.8 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 33.2 65.9 16.5 256.9 90.5 67.3 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 25.0 47.8 13.3 254.5 91.1 66.6 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 26.4 52.1 16.3 257.0 91.0 68.4 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 18.4 39.3 13.2 279.9 92.6 65.3 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 15.6 33.1 12.8 256.7 90.2 61.1 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 18.6 40.1 16.5 265.8 90.7 68.5 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 31.5 52.7 15.7 212.9 86.9 67.0 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 10.3 29.9 14.0 321.0 94.8 70.4 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 18.7 44.5 15.6 285.4 92.2 69.7 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.1 21.1 10.7 158.2 78.9 54.9 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 19.7 37.1 17.9 245.7 90.4 71.5 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.2 26.1 10.6 197.7 84.7 61.3 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 26.1 43.9 22.0 248.8 90.3 74.9 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 21.7 43.5 10.6 241.1 90.0 62.8 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 22.6 10.6 146.5 76.8 53.2 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.5 37.4 11.0 209.6 86.3 61.6 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 27.9 51.5 14.5 235.9 89.6 69.0 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 22.3 43.9 12.4 238.2 89.1 63.4 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.9 30.8 13.8 263.3 90.4 65.4 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 19.9 37.2 11.0 218.3 87.3 57.5 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 14.4 37.3 15.7 320.1 94.3 70.6 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 31.8 61.4 19.3 249.5 90.4 71.7 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.1 20.6 10.2 201.5 85.3 60.9 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------