***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 15.6 15.8 18.7 0.3 56.7 56.3 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 15.4 15.7 18.4 0.3 58.0 57.6 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 17.9 17.8 18.7 0.0 50.6 50.6 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 13.8 13.7 16.0 0.1 51.9 51.9 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.7 13.5 16.7 0.0 49.9 49.9 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.4 13.5 -0.3 42.0 42.6 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 15.7 15.9 18.5 0.3 56.8 56.4 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 8.8 8.4 13.9 -0.1 46.6 46.7 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 14.9 15.0 17.0 0.2 56.1 55.7 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 14.8 14.9 15.0 0.2 55.0 54.6 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 14.3 13.8 16.2 -0.3 42.0 42.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.6 12.0 14.9 -0.4 39.8 40.4 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.1 14.8 -0.3 41.5 42.5 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 15.6 16.0 16.7 0.4 62.9 62.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.3 17.7 -0.5 37.6 38.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.5 14.9 15.6 -0.3 41.9 42.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 16.0 16.3 18.2 0.4 59.7 59.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 13.1 13.4 14.4 0.3 58.1 57.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 15.4 15.5 18.5 0.2 54.5 54.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 9.1 9.1 12.5 0.1 53.1 52.9 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 14.7 14.7 17.9 0.2 54.3 54.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 14.8 15.1 18.5 0.4 59.1 58.7 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 14.8 14.8 18.5 0.1 51.9 51.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 15.0 15.2 16.5 0.2 55.4 55.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 15.1 15.2 17.9 0.2 54.6 54.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.8 13.8 -0.2 43.5 44.2 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 15.9 16.3 18.3 0.4 59.7 59.0 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.3 16.2 -0.3 43.1 43.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 13.1 13.4 13.6 0.2 56.5 55.9 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 15.8 16.0 18.7 0.2 54.8 54.5 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------