***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.4 17.5 -0.1 48.1 48.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.1 17.1 -0.1 48.1 48.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.4 17.8 -0.1 48.5 48.7 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.9 15.7 0.7 65.1 61.3 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 15.7 0.1 51.1 51.3 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 12.2 12.5 13.6 0.4 59.9 58.6 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.4 17.2 -0.1 48.5 48.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.6 13.3 -0.1 48.8 49.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 15.6 0.0 49.1 49.8 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.1 14.1 0.1 51.8 52.2 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.3 15.1 -0.3 43.4 44.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.8 14.2 -0.2 45.0 46.5 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.9 13.8 -0.2 46.6 47.6 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.1 15.6 0.3 57.8 56.5 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.6 17.3 0.4 57.9 56.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.6 14.6 0.0 49.2 49.8 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.8 16.8 0.0 50.1 49.7 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.8 13.5 0.4 58.8 58.1 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.3 17.2 -0.1 47.1 47.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.0 11.7 0.4 58.9 58.2 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 16.9 0.0 50.4 50.6 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.8 16.9 0.0 50.0 49.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.7 17.3 -0.1 47.6 48.1 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 15.5 0.3 55.7 55.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.1 16.6 0.0 50.3 50.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.3 13.4 0.0 50.8 51.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.5 17.0 0.0 50.9 50.6 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.4 16.0 0.5 60.9 58.7 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.1 12.8 0.3 55.9 55.9 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.5 17.4 -0.2 47.0 47.2 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------