***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.5 16.1 0.0 49.5 48.8 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.2 12.2 15.6 -0.2 45.6 45.5 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.4 16.2 -0.3 45.1 45.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.9 13.7 0.0 51.0 50.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.0 13.5 -0.3 43.9 45.2 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.6 12.1 0.1 51.2 50.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.7 12.6 15.9 -0.1 47.6 46.9 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.5 11.7 -0.2 44.9 45.5 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.2 13.6 -0.2 44.9 45.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.2 12.3 -0.2 46.7 46.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.7 13.0 -0.4 41.6 43.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.4 10.1 12.3 -0.4 40.6 42.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.6 -0.2 44.7 46.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.9 13.7 -0.1 47.4 46.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.7 15.3 0.1 52.9 51.6 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.7 12.5 -0.2 45.6 46.6 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.9 15.4 -0.2 46.7 46.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 11.4 -0.1 48.7 48.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.5 12.3 15.6 -0.3 43.7 44.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.2 9.5 0.0 50.7 49.8 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.0 15.1 -0.2 46.3 46.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 11.2 12.0 15.3 -0.3 44.6 44.5 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.7 15.6 -0.4 42.3 43.1 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.4 13.5 -0.2 46.7 46.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 14.8 0.1 51.2 50.3 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.3 11.5 -0.3 43.2 44.8 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 15.5 0.1 52.0 50.7 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.5 14.1 0.1 52.7 51.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.6 10.9 -0.1 47.0 47.0 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.6 15.9 -0.2 46.0 46.0 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------