***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 27.5 27.9 27.8 -1.7 27.3 29.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 26.8 26.9 27.5 -2.2 21.1 22.9 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 26.7 26.8 27.7 -2.3 21.8 23.6 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 20.2 20.5 24.9 -1.5 28.0 29.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.8 -2.4 20.0 21.7 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 25.9 25.9 23.4 -2.2 20.0 21.9 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 26.9 27.1 27.8 -1.7 27.0 28.8 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 14.9 14.3 23.1 -3.2 13.4 14.7 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 26.6 26.5 26.5 -2.5 18.6 20.3 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 26.5 26.3 24.3 -2.6 17.6 19.1 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 26.8 26.3 25.9 -3.0 15.0 16.7 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 25.8 24.9 24.3 -3.6 11.2 12.6 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 27.1 26.3 25.4 -3.2 12.5 14.3 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 26.9 27.1 26.5 -1.9 25.9 27.3 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.1 -1.7 27.0 29.0 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.5 -2.9 15.5 17.2 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 26.2 26.4 27.0 -2.0 23.2 24.8 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 25.6 25.3 23.5 -2.6 18.1 19.7 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 26.2 26.3 27.6 -2.3 20.7 22.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 21.3 21.0 21.6 -2.7 16.8 18.2 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 26.8 27.0 27.5 -2.1 23.0 24.7 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 26.7 27.0 27.2 -1.9 24.5 25.8 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 26.6 26.6 27.7 -2.3 21.4 23.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 26.0 26.1 26.1 -2.3 21.0 22.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.8 -1.7 27.6 29.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 26.4 25.5 23.7 -3.7 10.3 11.5 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.5 27.4 -1.4 30.0 31.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 27.7 27.9 26.1 -1.8 25.6 27.5 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 20.8 20.6 22.9 -2.6 18.5 20.0 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 26.6 26.7 27.7 -2.1 22.6 24.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------